Source Confirmed
Seller-confirmed
- Photo plate confirms Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU, S/N 21041-11065, rather than the seller's Thermo Scientific attribution.
- Two bins and AC/DC accessories are visibly present.
Analysis snapshotSnapshot decision:BUY
Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU Portable Ultra-Low Freezer — GSA Auction Analysis
A photo-confirmed Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU with two bins and AC/DC accessories corrects the seller's Thermo Scientific attribution. The seller reports it working, but no pull-down, hold, recovery, alarm, or AC/DC functional evidence is retained. Exact-model completed sales support a $1,500 blind basis and a downside-robust $50 ceiling at the observed $25 bid.
Stale-data warning
Analysis snapshot · Open at observation — observed October 8, 2026. This is an immutable observation, not a live feed. The auction is scheduled to close October 14, 2026. Price, status, close time, and terms may have changed. Check the source auction before bidding.
Decision at a glance
RecommendationBUY
- Maximum hammer bid
- $50
The auction bid ceiling supported by this analysis, if one is defensible; see costs below for buyer-premium treatment.
Why this decision
BUY at the immutable $25 bid only: exact identity, portable logistics, seller-reported operation, and exact-model sales support a $1,500 blind basis, while unverified ultra-low performance caps the robust hammer at $50.
See costs and maximum bid for the displayed assumptions and buyer-premium treatment.
- Snapshot observed bid
- $25
- Bidders
- Not captured
- Resale model
- $1,500–$2,200
Modeled resale range · conservative max-bid input $1,500
Snapshot provenance and timing · observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC · scheduled close October 14, 2026
GSA Auctions sale 1-1-QSC-I-27-017, lot 025 · Clarksburg, West Virginia 26301
Snapshot observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
Scheduled close October 14, 2026
Analysis prepared Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
Published October 8, 2026 · page updated October 8, 2026
Prepared and published by Oleksii Udod for LotCaliper.
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These are individually prepared, time-stamped analyses with recorded scheduled closes. Verify the official auction before acting.
Auction snapshot
This page preserves the October 8, 2026 GSA open-auction observation for item 379111, sale 1-1-QSC-I-27-017, lot 025: a $25 current bid and no established bidder count. The October 14 close is date-level only.
A seller working statement and intact portable freezer exterior do not establish ultra-low pull-down, stable hold, recovery, alarms, or AC/DC performance.
Review and correction history
Independent review completed. No corrections recorded.
View review and correction details
Independent review completed
Status: Approved · Reviewed October 8, 2026
Source-first review approved the revised $1,500 blind basis and $50 downside-robust ceiling; this is first-publication content, not a public correction.
How independent review worksHow evidence is classified
Seller facts, photo-derived observations, manufacturer context, unknowns, and LotCaliper assumptions remain explicitly separated.
Photo Derived
Photo-derived
- The enclosure appears substantially intact; no supplied image demonstrates active power or cooling.
Not Established
Not established
- Pull-down, stable hold, recovery, alarms, sensor accuracy, AC/DC function, calibration certificate, monitoring, backup cooling, keys, and service history.
Manufacturer Context
Independent context
- Stirling documents a 25 L, -86°C to -20°C portable freezer with AC/DC capability; that context does not prove this unit performs to specification.
Lotcaliper Assumption
LotCaliper assumptions
- $1,500 blind conservative resale and $50 robust hammer; $2,200 and about $900 only after pull-down/hold/recovery plus AC/DC verification.
Structured photo observations (2)
These are bounded observations from the preserved photographs. They do not establish functional operation or seller inclusion beyond the corresponding source evidence.
Model · Confirmed
Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU
Photo confidence: High
Serial · Confirmed
S/N 21041-11065; plate shows a 2021 date marking.
Photo confidence: High
Equipment identity
Laboratory · quantity 1
Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU portable ultra-low freezer, S/N 21041-11065
Identity confidence: High
Identity evidence
Manufacturer plate directly identifies Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU, S/N 21041-11065; this supersedes the seller's Thermo Scientific attribution.
GSA Auctions · Image · observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
Configuration
Two internal storage bins and AC/DC power accessories
Confirmed · High confidence
Configuration evidence
Supplied photos show two removable bins and AC/DC power accessories.
GSA Auctions · Image · observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
Remote monitoring, calibration certificate, backup cooling, keys, and unshown accessories
Not established · no source evidence establishes presence or absence
Configuration evidence
No supplied evidence establishes optional monitoring, calibration, backup cooling, keys, or other accessories.
GSA Auctions · Image · observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
Condition
Seller Reported Operational
Seller reports working order, but that is narrower than a demonstrated ultra-low-temperature pull-down or hold test.
Evidence confidence: Low Medium
Condition evidence
Seller condition statement, paraphrased.
GSA Auctions · Text · observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
As-is / repair risk
Seller also warns that parts may be missing and repairs may be required; no pull-down, stable hold, recovery, alarm, sensor, or AC/DC test is retained.
Evidence confidence: High
Condition evidence
Seller repair-risk wording and supplied photos.
GSA Auctions · Text · observed Oct 8, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC
Market evidence
Market evidence strength
Medium
Public auditability
Full
Evidence recency
Current
Modeled resale range
$1,500–$2,200
Conservative input used for max-bid math: $1,500
Market support: Medium
Exact-model completed sales at $1,495 and $2,200 anchor the blind/verified-working range. Higher asks and repair-state or auction-acquisition records remain distinct context.
| Model match | Evidence type | Treatment | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Model | Realized | Used In Valuation | 2 |
| Exact Model | Asking | Context Only | 1 |
| Exact Model | Ended Non Realized | Context Only | 1 |
| Source | Evidence | Observed | Price | Relevance and treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eBay ULT25NEU item 117091458171 Marketplace | Realized Exact Model | October 8, 2026 | $1,495 | Exact-model completed marketplace sale displayed at $1,495. Used In Valuation |
| Labtain ULT25NEU S/N 21031-10403 Dealer | Realized Exact Model | October 8, 2026 | $2,200 | 2021 tested exact-model unit displayed as sold at $2,200. Used In Valuation |
| Machinio ULT25NEU listing 114592581 Dealer | Asking Exact Model | October 8, 2026 | $2,750 | Current exact-model working-claim ask; not realized resale. Context Only |
| eBay ULT25NEU repair-state item 186769070373 Marketplace | Ended Non Realized Exact Model | October 8, 2026 | $1,000 | Repair-state listing reports failure to reach -86°C; displayed price has accepted-offer uncertainty. Context Only |
Sensitivity and robustness
Survives
The published decision survives the selected downside check under the stated bounded assumptions.
$1,200 resale stress
- Max hammer
- $50
- Gross resale model
- $1,200
At the $25 observed hammer, the lower-resale case still clears the $500 profit floor.
Higher logistics, testing, and repair exposure
- Max hammer
- $50
- Gross resale model
- $1,500
A $700 non-acquisition cost stack still supports the $50 robust ceiling.
Costs and maximum bid
| Transaction / operating cost | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Selling Fees | $225 | LotCaliper assumption: 15% of modeled gross resale. |
| Shipping | $150 | LotCaliper pickup, packing, rigging, and inbound-logistics reserve; not a carrier or GSA quote. |
| Testing Repair Reserve | $150 | LotCaliper functional-test and diagnostic reserve. |
| Risk Buffer | $150 | LotCaliper reserve for repair-risk condition, unresolved configuration, functional verification, and specialist resale liquidity. |
| Other | $0 | LotCaliper missing-component, configuration, or recovery reserve; not a seller or service quote. |
- Buyer premium
- Not modeled
- Return requirements
- $500 minimum profit · 30% minimum ROI
- Computed bid constraints
Profit floor: $325
ROI floor: $531
Downside robustness cap: $50
Binding: Downside robustness cap
- Snapshot blind/as-is max hammer
- $50
- Modeled result at recorded bid
- $800 profit · 168.42% modeled ROI
This is a reseller ceiling, not a prediction of the auction's closing price. Any buyer premium or other unquoted acquisition charge must be deducted before bidding.
Identity correction, ultra-low performance risk, and robust bid cap
The photo-confirmed Stirling identity changes the relevant support and comparable set. Exact completed sales support a conservative blind model, but the decisive risk remains whether this unit actually reaches and holds ultra-low temperature.
The seller's working statement is retained separately from functional proof. The $50 ceiling is intentionally lower than the base profit and ROI ceilings because two material downside cases must remain viable.
- Run a representative pull-down to about -80°C with an independent probe/logger.
- Check stable hold, lid-open recovery, alarms, controller accuracy, and both AC and 12 VDC operation.
Recommendation and rationale
Snapshot decision
BUYBUY at the immutable $25 bid only: exact identity, portable logistics, seller-reported operation, and exact-model sales support a $1,500 blind basis, while unverified ultra-low performance caps the robust hammer at $50.
Confidence
- Identity
- High
- Configuration
- Medium High
- Condition
- Medium Low
- Market Support
- Medium
- Costs
- Medium
Why these confidence levels were assigned
- Identity rationale
- Photo plate directly resolves exact model and serial.
- Material unknowns: Bounded
- Configuration rationale
- Bins and AC/DC accessories are visible; optional accessories are unestablished.
- Material unknowns: Bounded
- Condition rationale
- Seller reports working order but no core cooling-performance test is shown; the BUY is bounded by the explicit $50 downside ceiling rather than promoted to verified-working value.
- Material unknowns: Bounded
- Market Support rationale
- Multiple exact-model records exist across distinct condition states.
- Material unknowns: Bounded
- Costs rationale
- Portable 46 lb form factor bounds logistics, while actual repair need remains unknown.
- Material unknowns: Bounded
Market support assesses how well the available evidence supports the resale assumption. Exact third-party marketplace records may be omitted when source-use rights are unclear. Each dimension uses the published methodology rubric; a confidence label measures the strength and boundedness of its evidence, not the likelihood of a profitable outcome.
Risks and unknowns
High · Functionality Unverified
No pull-down, hold, recovery, alarm, sensor, or AC/DC functional proof is retained.
Seller wording and exterior photos are not performance tests.
Sources
View cited public sources
- GSA Auctions item 379111
Official immutable auction-observation provenance.
- Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU product page
Official current product and support context.
- Stirling Ultracold ULT25NEU operating manual
Official exact-model specifications and performance benchmarks.